Is this quiet, or does it only feel quiet?
A coin shows 30% volatility. Is that high or low? Compared to what?
The idea
Volatility numbers are meaningless as absolutes. 30% is sleepy for a small cap and wild for an index. The fix is to rank today's reading against the same asset's own history and quote a percentile. Compression matters because volatility clusters and mean-reverts, so a reading near the bottom of its own distribution raises the odds of expansion — but it tells you the size of the next move, never the direction.
The formula
realized vol = stdev(daily log returns over 30d) x sqrt(365)
compute it for every day in the history, then:
percentile = count(past readings < today) / count(all readings)Worked example — BTC
| 30-day realized volatility | 29.7% |
| Percentile vs own history | 10.9th |
| Sample size | 970 readings |
| Median of that history | 44.2% |
29.7% sounds unremarkable until it is ranked: it is the 10.9th percentile of 970 readings. The number only became information after it was compared to its own past.
Common mistake
Treating compression as a direction signal. It forecasts magnitude. Anyone telling you a squeeze must resolve downward is adding an opinion to a measurement.
Do it yourself
Export daily candles for any pair, apply the formula above, and compare your number to the one on this page. If they disagree, one of us is wrong and it is worth finding out which.