Is this pump still recruiting buyers, or running out of them?
Two coins both show every holder in profit. How do I tell which one is about to stall?
The idea
The underwater share reads near zero for a move still pulling money in AND for one that has run out of buyers, because both sit near their highs. It cannot separate them. What can is the direction of participation: compare the last three days of turnover against the weeks before. Price rising on rising volume is expansion. Price rising on falling volume is exhaustion — the earliest observable warning there is.
The formula
recent = mean daily turnover of the last 3 days
prior = mean daily turnover of the days before that
volume trend = (recent - prior) / prior
expansion = price up AND volume trend > 0
exhaustion = price up AND volume trend < 0Worked example — UNI
| Volume trend (3d vs prior) | +115.4% |
| Money underwater | 19.3% |
| Spot vs VWAP | +10.1% |
| Heaviest day closed at | 4.349 |
Turnover is running +115.4% against the prior weeks, and the heaviest day of the week closed at 4.349 against spot 4.095. Volume arriving above the current price is the tell worth learning.
Common mistake
Comparing today's partial candle against yesterday's completed one. At 08:00 UTC a third of the day has passed, so today will always look like collapsing volume. Wait for the close, or pro-rate it.
Do it yourself
Export daily candles for any pair, apply the formula above, and compare your number to the one on this page. If they disagree, one of us is wrong and it is worth finding out which.